One of our members did shoot an important question this week.
“Hi AB, what are your thoughts about a recession in the following months? As all markets would crash, should we decrease our exposure to cryptos?” Let’s answer comprehensively.
Is a Recession Coming?
The world is already in a recession if you consider reality over technicals. Think tanks like JP Morgan believe there is a high likelihood of a recession.
J.P. Morgan: The probability of a U.S. recession starting before the end of 2024 is 35%.
At the beginning of 2024, JP Morgan predicted the same probability to be 25%.
S&P Global Ratings: 25% probability of a recession.
Goldman Sachs: 15%.
Even though these probabilities can not be ignored, we can safely say that the recession is likely to happen in 2025 rather than in 2024.
Global Slowdown?
What Global Slowdown? We can’t see it. Maybe we are blind.
Total world economic activity as measured from the average of world trade volumes and industrial production, saw a soft landing but is clearly on an upward trajectory:
World trade volumes (average of… pic.twitter.com/JstYDdMMkm
— RecessionALERT (@RecessionAlert) October 30, 2024
Will there be a Market Crash?
Since 2010, there have been multiple instances of recession.
1) Q1 2020 – Covid
GDP in the U.S. fell by 5% in Q1 and then plummeted by 31.4% in Q2 (annualized rate). Unemployment spiked to nearly 15% in April 2020.
Bitcoin performance in Q1 2020: -10%.
Bitcoin dumped 10% across the first quarter.
2) Q2 2020 – Covid recession
Bitcoin performance in Q2 2020: +42%.
Bitcoin pumped 42% across the second quarter.
JUST IN: Mark Moss explains why he thinks the next market CRASH will be inflationary with @natbrunell
There is still time to jump on the #Bitcoin lifeboat!!! pic.twitter.com/Ow3irwUfhn
— Simply Bitcoin (@SimplyBitcoinTV) September 16, 2024
3) Q1 2022 – Inflation led
Bitcoin performance in Q1 2022: -1%
4) Q2 2022 – Feds Interest rate hike led to recession
Bitcoin performance in Q2 2022: -56%.
Bitcoin had the worst quarter in recent history in Q2, 2022.
Recession and Investment
Usually, a recession happens in the first quarter. So Q4 is not a risky quarter to hold crypto. Should we decrease exposure to crypto? Well, if you are overexposed, or if you are asking the very question, YOU SHOULD decrease your exposure.
Crypto is too volatile, and the upcoming 2 months will test your patience. Look at how BTC is silently accumulating, forming consistent Higher Lows and Higher Highs.
Let’s wait for a daily close above $72k. Alts will start flying post $72k. We expect the final altcoin bull run will start after the last Bitcoin bullish wave. By the current market circumstances, it can even get pushed to May or June 2025.
While the concerns of recession are valid. Let’s see what happens. We will soon publish the November crypto outlook.
Disclaimer
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to the accepted risk tolerance levels of the writer/reviewers and their risk tolerance may be different than yours. We are not responsible for any losses that you may incur as a result of any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments so please do your due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.
The post Market Report – Is a Recession Coming? appeared first on Altcoin Buzz.
This articles is written by : Fady Askharoun Samy Askharoun
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